Systemic financial risk early warning of financial market in China using Attention-LSTM model

We propose an Attention-LSTM neural network model to study the systemic risk early warning of China. Based on text mining, the network public opinion index is constructed and used as a training set to be incorporated into the early warning model to test the early warning effect. The results show that: (i) the network public opinion is the non-linear Granger causality of systemic risk. (ii) The Attention-LSTM neural network has strong generalization ability. Early warning effects have been significantly improved. (iii) Compared with the BP neural network model, the SVR model and the ARIMA model, the LSTM neural network early warning model has a higher accuracy rate, and its average prediction accuracy for systemic risk indicators has been improved over short, medium and long terms. When the attention mechanism is included in the LSTM, the Attention-LSTM neural network model is even more accurate in all the cases.     

财税政策、工农业分工与农业生产率——理论分析与经验证据

本文基于动态分工演进,以自给自足的自然经济为起点,将秩序服务和财税政策纳入一个理论框架,结合超边际决策分析和一般均衡分析,考察在此过程中各个经济人的最优决策在市场上相互作用而内生的各种变化,揭示了财税政策作用于工农业分工和农业生产率的内在机制。然后,使用中国改革开放以来的数据对相关结论进行实证检验。模型分析表明,政府财税政策的实施在促进工农业分工水平提高的情况下,会扩大粮食生产的迂回化经济程度,进而推动粮食部门的农地生产率提升。就长期而言,单位面积的财政支农支出对农地生产率的提高有显著正向影响,在其他农业生产要素既定情况下,单位面积的财政支农支出每增加1%,农地生产率增加3.23%;从短期来看,单位面积财政支农支出对农地生产率的作用较弱,但在反向修正机制的作用下,最终会达到有效提高农地生产率的长期稳定均衡。另外,财政支农支出的增加促进了分工水平的提高,而分工水平的提高又推动了农业生产率的提升。     

广西农业生态脆弱性评价及区划研究

［目的］随着经济的快速发展，我国各地区都面临着不同程度的农业生态脆弱性，通过研究特殊地形和气候下的农业生态脆弱性，有助于为农业生态环境的综合治理提供参考。［方法］文章以广西为例，通过构建评价指标体系，采用层次分析法和熵权法确定综合权重，通过构建综合评价模型对广西农业生态脆弱性程度进行评价，利用ArcGIS对生态脆弱性进行分级，以期探究广西农业生态脆弱性的空间分布情况。［结果］权重分析结果表明水蚀面积的权重值最高为0134，年平均降水量的权重值为0113，自然环境指标相对于农业生产和经济指标对农业生态脆弱性的影响更大。区划研究结果表明广西农业生态脆弱性区域大致可分为5个区域，分别是桂西峰丛洼地带、桂东山地丘陵地带、桂中低山丘陵地带、桂东北山地、桂南沿海丘陵地带。［结论］广西农业生态环境整体来看较为脆弱，处于轻度和中度脆弱等级，但生态环境问题仍不容忽视。为了改善农业生态脆弱性，政府应实行区域的联合防治，加大对农业生态环境的监督和治理，积极探寻生态、环保的农业发展方式，调整产业结构，改善农业生态环境的状态，促进广西农业的可持续发展。     

Do housing prices promote total factor productivity? Evidence from spatial panel data models in explaining the mediating role of population density

The issue of what to promote in total factor productivity (TFP) in urban areas has been widely discussed in academia and housing prices and population density are confirmed to be two of the most essential driving factors. However, research into the interaction of housing prices and population density with TFP has been neglected, with no previous studies taking spatial factors into consideration, which may bias the results. From this perspective, using spatial panel data models and employing instrumental variables to solve the endogenous problem, this study examines the impact of housing prices on TFP through the mediating effect of population density for 283 Chinese cities during the period 2000–2013, and confirms that the mediating effect accounts for 18.70 % of the total effect. The results show the positive and significant association of housing prices with TFP and the inverted U-shape of population density. The underlying logic is that housing prices change population density by attracting people with high purchasing power and discouraging those unable to afford housing, whereas increased density helps to promote productivity since the settled inhabitants always have highly developed work skills and are well educated. The influencing mechanism of housing prices on TFP through population density is analyzed, namely the spillover effect. We find that the spillover effect exists in the eastern and central regions, as well as first, second, and third tier cities, while for western regions and fifth tier cities, population mobility and increased in housing prices slows their economic development. There is no evidence of any spillover effect in fourth tier cities. A discussion and suggested policy implications are also provided.     

An information-theoretic approach for forecasting interval-valued SP500 daily returns

We develop an iterative and efficient information-theoretic estimator for forecasting interval-valued data, and use our estimator to forecast the SP500 returns up to five days ahead using moving windows. Our forecasts are based on 13 years of data. We show that our estimator is superior to its competitors under all of the common criteria that are used to evaluate forecasts of interval data. Our approach differs from other methods that are used to forecast interval data in two major ways. First, rather than applying the more traditional methods that use only certain moments of the intervals in the estimation process, our estimator uses the complete sample information. Second, our method simultaneously selects the model (or models) and infers the model’s parameters. It is an iterative approach that imposes minimal structure and statistical assumptions.     

GRADING JOURNALS IN ECONOMICS: THE ABCS OF THE ABDC

Many institutions and governments grade academic journals for the evaluation of research. In this paper, we implement a multi-bibliometric methodology for the evaluation of such a list of journal grades. We examine the grades assigned by the Australian Business Deans Council (ABDC) for over 750 journals in the fields of economics and statistics. Firstly, we generate up to 48 bibliometric-based grades for each journal based on the grade distribution implied by the ABDC. Secondly, we categorize the bibliometrics employing a cluster analysis of an interrater agreement statistic. Thirdly, we present a visualization of the consistency of the grading by journal. Finally, we list those journals where the majority of the matched bibliometrics indicate a higher or lower grade than their ABDC grade.     

Towards the Development of a Tax System Complexity Index

Reducing tax system complexity is a common goal amongst policymakers; yet there is no commonly agreed definition of complexity. This paper seeks to fill this gap, by proposing the construction of an index of tax system complexity, conceived as a summary indicator of the overall complexity of a tax system at a particular point in time. If adopted, such an index would not only enable assessment of the changing level of a country's tax system complexity over time, but may also facilitate comparisons of the relative complexity of different countries' tax systems in future.     

The roles of land tenure reforms and land markets in the context of population growth and land use intensification in Africa

This article reviews the past and potential future roles of land tenure reforms and land markets in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) as responses to population growth in the process of land use intensification and livelihood transformation. The farm size distribution and the existence of an inverse relationship (IR) between farm size and land productivity in SSA and the implications of this relationship for efficiency and equity are investigated. More secure property rights and removal of restrictions on land markets have the potential to create both efficiency and equity benefits, but there are high risks of elite capture of large land areas with inefficient and inequitable outcomes. This situation is the case not only in land-abundant areas but also in urban and peri-urban areas where increasingly larger proportions of people will make their living. Increasing population pressure in densely populated rural areas contributes to more rapid rural–urban migration, and creating alternative livelihood opportunities for the migrating youth population is essential to achieving economic development with social stability.     

Diversification and sophistication of livestock products: The case of African countries

This study assesses the level of sophistication of livestock products in Africa by evaluating technology intensity and economic complexity of each product. Using trade data from 1995 to 2012, livestock commodity exports are classified based on technology intensity. Employing a method of reflection in computing the economic complexity of export products, we find that one fifth of African livestock commodity exports are manufactured with low technology while the rest is composed of raw materials. The results also show that the ten most complex livestock commodities represent about a third of African livestock total exports while the world level is almost double this figure. Yet African countries spend a huge share of their wealth on importing complex products. The results imply that by exporting non-complex products Africa loses nearly a third of the total value of its livestock exports. To boost the value of livestock products, African countries should exploit their untapped potential while securing the domestic market to achieve import substitution. This can be done by integrating with global value chains or developing niche markets at the regional or international markets and improving productive capabilities.     

成品油销售综合经营指标三级预警机制探索--中国石油陕西销售公司的经营实践

2018年以来,中国石油陕西销售公司采用"红橙黄"经营指标三级预警机制,把复杂的量价关系、促销经营和费用成本管控,通过指标量化。一是以经营活动分析为基础,围绕业务指标、财务指标及支撑体系,建立了综合经营指标长效预警机制。二是通过大数据平台,形成业务运行数据每日监控,实现对月度指标的跟踪预警。中国石油陕西销售公司以"红橙黄"经营指标三级预警为抓手,将综合指标评价理念贯穿到经营全过程中,为生产经营活动提供了直观的决策依据,实现了提质增效的目标。